Will it be Clinton vs. Bush again, or a dark horse?

Will it be Clinton vs. Bush again, or a dark horse?

TSUYOSHI SUNOHARA, Nikkei senior staff writer

WALWORTH, Wisconsin -- The election of a new U.S. president following a two-term incumbent typically sets off a momentous shift in global affairs. Such shifts occurred when Bill Clinton and George W. Bush left the White House after serving eight years, and a similar change is likely after Barack Obama's second term ends in January 2017.

Hillary Clinton © Reuters

The outcome of the 2016 presidential race will shed light on whether the world's sole superpower will continue to lose influence, as it has over the past quarter century. This could be the biggest factor shaping global trends in the 21st century as China and India grow stronger and Russia's relations with the West become more adversarial.

Jeb Bush © Reuters

Many political insiders in the U.S. favor candidates who have served as a governor, senator or cabinet member, or who have experience running a large organization.

With the current presidential race gathering steam earlier than past contests, Donald Trump, a Republican real estate magnate and TV personality, has stolen the spotlight with freewheeling, no-holds-barred rhetoric. But it is former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and two other Republicans -- former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and current Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker -- who are the favored candidates among voters eager for a president with extensive political experience.

Donald Trump © Reuters

Some observers predict another round of Clinton versus Bush, a rivalry that goes back to 1992, when Jeb Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, lost to Hillary Clinton's husband, Bill. But a growing crowd of Washington pundits see Walker, who lacks the typical Ivy League pedigree of a presidential candidate, as a dark horse. 

The agendas of Bush and Clinton are fairly predictable. Walker, by contrast, shares one similarity with Obama: an anti-Washington, outsider persona that has gone down with American voters well since 1992, and helped vault Obama into office in 2008.

Clinton, Bush and Walker have all said in exclusive interviews with The Nikkei that they attach importance to the Japan-U.S. alliance, are deeply concerned about China's intentions and believe in the free trade system.